Li Xunlei: Why Can Beijing House Prices Become Higher?
Why Beijing’s house prices later came to the original: Li Xunlei, Li Xunlei Finance and Investment (Reprinted, please indicate the source: WeChat public account lixunlei0722) Resident disposable income: When Beijing surpassed Shenzhen in 1996, I left Shanghai to work in Shenzhen for a simple reason.The salary level in Shenzhen is much higher than that in Shanghai, and the monthly salary I got while working in Shenzhen was about 8 times that when I was a college teacher in Shanghai.
From the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the average expenditure level of Shenzhen still exceeded Shanghai and Beijing during 2000-12, but the gap was gradually narrowing.
Comparing the temporary disposable income of urban residents over the years, it was found that in 2002, similar disposable income of Shenzheners was almost the same as that of Shanghai. Shanghai surpassed Beijing, but the rate of increase was not large.
Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing. Percentage of disposable income ratio of residents in three cities. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute. In my memory, housing prices in Shanghai have risen since 2002-03, but housing prices in Beijing are still very high.Low, although Shenzhen is higher than Shanghai, it has been a bit flat in those years.
The figures quoted below are derived from Wonder, but do not seem to agree with my memory.
The reason for using the data of second-hand housing transaction prices is that in the past few years, the first-hand commercial housing has been limited in price, so the price of the first-hand housing is not in line with the market price.
Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen average price of second-hand housing transactions Source: WIND, Photograph by Wu Jialu of China-Thailand 深圳桑拿按摩网 Securities Research Institute In theory, house prices are related to the income level of local residents, so there are calculation formulas such as “house price income”.
Therefore, earlier in the year of 2013, the minority residents’ disposable income of Shenzhen residents still surpassed that of Beijing and Shanghai. Therefore, it is reasonable for the average property price to exceed that of Shanghai.
But after 2013, people in Beijing and Shanghai may have more disposable income than Shenzhen, which may be one of the reasons why the average property prices in Shanghai and Beijing surpass Shenzhen.
The reason why the income of residents is not the only reason for housing prices is that housing resources also include scarce resources such as education, medical care, cultural and entertainment convenience. In this regard, Shenzhen is not as good as Beijing and Shanghai.In addition, Beijing’s college resources are beyond the reach of Shanghai, so the “gold content” of Beijing and Shanghai hukou is greater than Shenzhen.
Why can Beijing’s residents’ income surpass the three major cities in Shenzhen? Beijing’s housing prices later rose to become the nation’s highest housing prices. Although there are many reasons, they are consistent with the artificially controlled income’s later rankings.
So, why can Beijing ‘s per capita income level be only half that of Shenzhen and then surpass Shenzhen?
I think there are three major reasons: First, state-owned enterprises have gone through a process of developing from disadvantages to advantages.
In the 1990s, state-owned enterprises may face a large-scale, too many laid-off workers, while foreign and private enterprises have higher incomes, and the pay levels of state-owned enterprises and institutions have been replaced. Therefore, as the most open special zones, as private enterprises and richThe relatively high geographical area of Shenzhen has attracted foreign and private enterprises from all over the country who have flowed to Shenzhen.
Therefore, before 2000, the days of state-owned enterprises were generally difficult, and even the current banks had severe bad debts. This was mainly due to backward management and many disadvantages. After 2000, through China’s entry into the stage of heavy chemical industrialization, the development of state-owned and private enterprises was almostGo hand in hand.
But after the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis, the era of high growth of private enterprises seems to have ended, and the comparative advantage of state-owned enterprises has gradually formed.
According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average annual salary of urban non-civilian units in 2017 was 74,318 yuan, while the average annual salary of employees in urban residential units was 45,761 yuan, the former being one of them.
62 times, the difference is very obvious.
Beijing’s private economy accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the domestic economy accounts for a large proportion. This means that Beijing’s resident income has grown faster than Shenzhen’s.
Secondly, from the perspective of industrial structure, after 2008, the heavy chemical industry has entered the later stage, and the proportion of the tertiary industry has gradually increased. However, a large number of service industries such as finance, telecommunications, education, and medical care have been basically monopolized.The cost is high, and the lack of technical and talent advantages makes it difficult to enter. Because the competition of private companies is constantly being reduced, the level of employment of employees is equal to non-private companies.
In 2017, Shenzhen’s tertiary industry accounted for the highest proportion.
The average salary of the tertiary industry is generally higher than that of the secondary industry.
For example, the top three industries with the highest salary in 2017 are all tertiary industries: information transmission and software and information technology services, finance, scientific research and technical services.
This can explain why Beijing and Shanghai, two large state-owned enterprises, account for far more than Shenzhen’s cities, and their income levels eventually surpass Shenzhen’s.
Third, gradually increase the degree of economic monetization. In capitals that integrate education, medical care, cultural and entertainment resources, and administrative resources, the proportion of hidden income in the income structure of residents may exceed Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Although education and medical system reform have been progressing, the degree of industrialization or marketization is still not high. The non-market pricing of scarce resources will inevitably avoid the phenomenon of rent-seeking; the performance of deregulation and decentralization is obvious.But it is difficult to eradicate corruption.
At the end of 2017, Beijing’s permanent population was 21.71 million, Shanghai was 24.18 million, and Beijing was nearly 2.5 million fewer than Shanghai.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the disposable income of residents in Shanghai is still slightly higher than that in Beijing.
However, in 2017, Beijing’s catering industry’s revenue was 102.9 billion, surpassing Shanghai; everyone said that eating in Guangdong, but Beijing’s catering industry is obviously more developed than Guangdong.
Beijing and Shanghai have the number of top 500 restaurants in China. Source: Beijing Commercial Daily, Beijing Statistics Bureau is not only better than Beijing in terms of food consumption, but also the per capita savings of residents are far less than Beijing. At the end of 2017, Beijing residents saved2.
896 trillion, which is more than 460 billion higher than Shanghai.
Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen residents ‘savings data Source: WIND, China and Thailand Securities Research Institute Wu Jialu Photo courtesy In fact, hidden income may not be reflected in residents’ savings, but also includes property, antiques, art, precious metals and luxury goods, Even cash (such as tons of cash found in the homes of very few officials).
According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2017, although Beijing’s real estate added value exceeded that of Shanghai, at the end of 2017, Beijing residents’ mortgage balance was only 9664.
50,000 yuan, increasing residential mortgages by 1366 per year.
300 million, 1075 less than the previous year.
It is regrettable that Shanghai did not find data on residential housing loan balances at the end of 2017, and the Shanghai headquarters only released the incremental “Shanghai home and foreign currency personal housing loans increased by 1,528 in 2017.
8.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1823.”6.2 billion US dollars”, which is basically a bucket budget. Shanghai’s residential home purchase loans in both the balance and the annual increase in scale have exceeded Beijing. Therefore, Beijing’s one-time payment of home buyers may far exceed Shanghai.
Capital housing prices rank first in the country. It is very unreasonable. Although Shenzhen has always been at the forefront of reform and opening up, it has also produced a number of outstanding domestic private enterprises such as Huawei, Tencent, Vanke, BYD, and Ping An. However, due to the secondary industry in Shenzhen,The proportion is relatively high, so the average disposable income of residents has been overtaken by Beijing and Shanghai.
So, ranking Shenzhen, and since the reform and opening up, have Beijing and Shanghai also created many outstanding private enterprises?
There should be many, such as Beijing’s Lenovo, Baidu, Jingdong, Xiaomi, etc., Shanghai’s Fosun, Junyao, etc., but it feels inferior to Shenzhen.
Shenzhen, as a reform and opening-up city with the highest marketization level, has created many miracles and countless merits. However, the growth rate of residents ‘dominated income has actually declined in the past 10 years, and it is finally lower than that of Beijing and Shanghai.This requires reflection.
In my opinion, the question that needs to be considered most is how has the allocation of social resources been achieved in the past 20 years and the flow has been reasonable?
For example, it was proposed in 1990 that Shanghai should build four centers including the international financial center. Despite the efforts of nearly 30 years, the scale of Shanghai’s financial industry added value is almost the same as that of Beijing.
Why does Beijing not need to work very hard to develop the financial industry, but it can do so much?
The proportion of Beijing’s tertiary industry has been generally consistent with that of the United States and other countries, because one party, two meetings, four major commercial banks, three major policy banks, and state-owned insurance giants are all in Beijing. Among the top 500 global companies, the number of headquarters in Beijing far exceedsShanghai, this is a typical administrative resource.
Agglomeration of administrative resources will bring a lot of disadvantages. Therefore, the policy must always adhere to “to allow the market to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources.”
In fact, the establishment of the Xiong’an New District and the relocation of the Beijing Municipal Government to Tongzhou are aimed at decentralizing administrative resources, driving the migration of other scarce resources, and preventing various disadvantages caused by excessive accumulation of resources.
It may be Washington, DC in the United States, it is also the political center of the United States, New York is an economic and financial center, and the division of labor is very clear. However, Washington ‘s housing prices rank sixth among major U.S. cities, but the median price of housing in Washington, DC is 40More than ten thousand dollars, while New York is more than six hundred thousand dollars.
It can be seen that Washington does not have the administrative power to gather excessive resources.
So how will Beijing’s future change itself?
I think it should be “de-financialization” and “headquarters economy”.
As a capital, Beijing is, of course, a political center and an administrative center. At the same time, as a well-known dense city of universities, it can also maintain its advantages of internal education and scientific research centers, but the role of financial centers and headquarters of central enterprises should not be long-termAlready.
In addition to the millennium plan for the establishment of the Xiong’an New District and the removal of the Beijing Municipal Government from the central area, it is more important that the market play a decisive role in resource allocation and can be truly replaced.
This requires further simplification of administration and decentralization, and implementation of an increased list.
If the highest indicator is used to measure whether the decisive role of market allocation of resources is correctly interpreted, theft can be seen as an indicator, that is, whether Beijing’s housing price level has previously retreated to third, that is, restored to the order of 10 years ago: ShenzhenFirst, Shanghai is second, Beijing is third.
After all, Washington’s housing prices rank only sixth in the United States.