Guotai Junan: New Rules for Refinancing Landed in Securities Industry
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Original title: After the epidemic, how will the loose era be interpreted?
Monarch Zhouzhi Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research Week Key words The era of easing is coming. War epidemic is both in the ward and the economy.
In early February, various government departments took turns expressing their response to the new crown. The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on February 3 and February 12 explicitly requested that the 2020 economic and social development goals and tasks be adhered to, and the tasks set by the Party Central Committee.They must be completed, gradually return to work, investment, consumption and many other aspects have been outstanding.
Going forward, Guotai Junan’s macro team answered many questions about currency, finance, reform and other issues recently discussed in the market.
In terms of currency, the macro team believes that MLF and LPR will continue to be reduced in 2020, and the pace and rate of interest rate cuts will exceed expectations.
In terms of finance, the current fiscal policy focuses on three aspects, one is the prevention and control of the epidemic, the second is the resumption of labor, and the third is the support of enterprises in the areas affected by the epidemic.
In view of the current local fiscal budget, the macro team believes that the fiscal deficit in 2020 will break 3 probability deviations.
In terms of financial policy, according to the gradual and technical assessment of the new period of supplementary fund management regulations by the bancassurance regulatory agency, the macro team expects that the new period of asset management regulations may be extended to 2021, but the non-standard release is short-term and short-term; for smaller real estateThis epidemic has infiltrated the real estate industry fundamentals. Several local governments have issued policies to stabilize the housing market and the local market. The macro team expects that the local government ‘s autonomy in real estate policies will be further increased. The Guotai Junan Real Estate team further stated thatShort-term to long-term policies will be preceded by monetary policy, with administrative policies in the middle, and non-standard gradual easing in the easing of the hall; in terms of industrial policy, the macro team expects that the overweight infrastructure will still be “structural” and boost consumption will be moreFocus on automotive and emerging consumption.
In general, the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy is phased. This has been confirmed by Guotai Junan’s strategic team’s research indicators at the industry level. Looking at the 6 major sectors of communications and electronics, the 7 major sectors of new energy and automotiveIndustry, through in-depth research on four aspects: “survey data-basic conditions”, “expectable policies”, “industry boom”, and “EPS impact estimation”, the strategy team believes that the overall impact of the epidemic on these industries is limited, and follow-up work mayPotential competitive advantage.
For the severely affected by the epidemic, with recognized aviation, express, hotel, catering, cinema, liquor and other sectors, the strategy team through the bottom-up combing, combined with industry fundamentals and investor participation and other factors, believe that “adversityThe basic conditions of “reversal” are brewing.
Going forward, Guotai Junan’s transportation team and social service team also verified this from the industry supply and demand requirements. The transportation team used the “blue collar smooth resumption of work” as a basic scenario to make assumptions on the resumed work data and business travel data for the next month.The current situation of low-speed growth of the fleet size in 2020 is that if the summer vacation will not be significantly shortened, the aviation sector fundamentals are expected to perform better than expected during the summer vacation.
The social service team analyzed the current status of the service industry. There is general demand for compensation and no inventory backlog. In the second half of the year, hotels, business travel, and catering are still needed. Therefore, it is judged that the tourism sector in 2021 is expected to usher in high growth due to the low base in 2020.Certainty indicators.
According to the close tracking of the epidemic prevention and control and the industrial chain, Guotai Junan’s macro team analysis benchmarks are vertical, and the economic growth or replacement in the first quarter.
9%, the highest growth rate or from 6% -6.
The 5% range was lowered to 5.
0%, the stimulus intensity will be “medium”.
In 2020, the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts, broad fiscal optimism, and real estate financing relaxation will all exceed expectations.
▼ In 2020, the overall economic growth rate showed a “deep reversal” Source: CEIC, Guotai Junan Securities Research Refinancing New Rules Introduced On February 14, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued a formal draft of the revised mainboard and GEM refinancing rules.
The new regulations have been adjusted in many aspects such as pricing, exit, the number of objects to be issued, and the scale of financing. The relevant research team of Guotai Junan explained the highlights of the new regulations and the impact on related industries.
First, Guotai Junan’s non-bank financial team observed three highlights of the new rules: lowering the refinancing conditions of the GEM; loosening the pricing and lock-in period; extending the validity of the refinancing approval from 6 months to 12 months.
The tactical solicitation draft has exceeded market expectations in terms of lock-in period and pricing, while the new draft of the new regulations has been further relaxed on the margins.
The non-bank team expects that subsequent counter-cyclical breakthroughs and the favorable policies of the securities industry will be expected to exceed expectations.
In fact, when merged into a physical enterprise, most of Guotai Junan’s team believe that the new refinancing rules are expected to further reduce the cost of capital for the enterprise and help accelerate the improvement of the balance sheet.
In connection with the current status of the photovoltaic industry, Guotai Junan Power’s new team believes that the new regulations will treat it as an expansion of the company’s production to obtain capital support, and the company’s growth rate and market share will usher in a good one.
At the same time, Guotai Junan’s environmental protection team also believes that refinancing will catalyze the restructuring of the industry and accelerate the speed of industry consolidation.
By sorting out the relevant financial indicators of Shenwan Communications and GEM companies in the light industry, Guotai Junan Communications and the light industry manufacturing team believe that the “revocation of conditions that exceed the 45% of the asset-liability ratio” in the new refinancing rules will affectGEM companies have been loosened significantly, but the overall impact is limited because the number of beneficiary companies has decreased in the total number of industry companies.
In addition to the new African epidemic, the African population disaster will also attract global attention in the beginning of 2020.
Since 2019, a 70-year blood glucose disaster has broken out in Kenya, and the flooded retinal group quickly spread to East and South Asia.
At present, the army of insects has crossed the India-Pakistan border and invaded India’s Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Guotai Junan’s agricultural team has analyzed and researched the corn worm’s traits, hazards and disaster routes, and global food prices. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities under the expected increase in food prices from three perspectives.
First, if the impact of the disaster exceeds expectations, it will lead to a situation of food supplementation.
Among them, the main food crops grown in Central and East Africa are cassava, so the disaster will directly lead to the reduction of cassava production in the region; wheat and cotton grown in Pakistan may also be hit.
The second is that fungi are spreading to India. India is a major sugar producing country in the world, and the price of sugar is likely to be supported by cattle.
Third, India is a large sugar crop country. If the retina worm has an impact on sugarcane cultivation in India than expected, the disturbance of this crystallization disaster will cause a historical reversal of global sugar prices.
U.S. adjusts the list of subsidies On February 10, 2020, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced on its website that some and least changed lists will be amended under the U.S. countervailing law, announcing the cancellation of WTO trade in 25 economiesPreferential policies, including China and Hong Kong.
By referring to the relevant documents on USTR’s official website, Guotai Junan’s macro team analyzed the basis and impact of the list adjustment, and especially answered the misunderstandings prevailing in the market. In response to the media’s and some investors’ misunderstanding of the view that the United States withdrew part of the replacement for China, the macro team first corrected the main basis of the list adjustment: First, according to the World Bank’s GNI per capita distinction of high-income economies;Second, the global trade share exceeds 0.
5%; third is other factors, including members of the OECD, the European Union, the G20, or themselves, who did not declare themselves when they joined the WTO.
China is no longer enjoying subsidies due to its high trade share and choice for the G20.
Specifically, after the list is revised, Thailand, Brazil, India, South Africa and other countries will not be included in the list of preferential policies of the countervailing law. Secondly, through comparison, the macro team found that the US’s revised list is only for countervailing investigation programs.It does not involve other matters under the WTO framework.
In the end, the macro team believes that the adjustment of the countervailing investigation algorithm by the United States has little substantial impact on the substance, but it is worth alerting. This is another landmark event for the United States to reshape the global trade level and layout. Ironworking also requires its own hardship.It is also necessary to persist in deepening reform and opening up, improve all-factor advantages, and constantly improve its competition in the global value chain.
▼ The U.S. anti-counterfeit investigations against the above countries have never stopped Source: USITC, Guotai Junan Securities Research Industry Research Bank: The industry is in the gold allocation period February 17, the official website of the China Banking Regulatory Commission releasedMain Regulations “Indicator Data”.
From the data point of view, the overall operating situation of the banking industry in the fourth quarter of 2019 was slightly better than expected. Among them, the stable profit is the biggest highlight. The main supporting factors analyzed by the Guotai Junan Bank team are three points. The first is the provision for loosening. The second is the large bank interest rate difference.Upside; Thirdly, asset investment rose steadily.
Looking forward to 2020, the banking team believes that revenues will decline, provisions will be backed up, and profit stability will be the main line of the industry. The stability of the industry’s profitability tends to be better than market expectations. The current sector is near the bottom of history, and the stagnation is obvious.
▼ In the fourth quarter of 2019, the margin of the banking industry ‘s net interest margins widened. Source: Bank of China Insurance Regulatory Commission, Guotai Junan Securities Research Farmer: Paddy rice purchase price set in 2020 On February 18, the State Council meeting focused on keeping the minimum rice purchase price stable in 2020.Depending on the situation, it can be appropriately increased to encourage the restoration of double-crop rice in areas with conditions.
Going forward, the Guotai Junan 杭州桑拿网 agricultural team ‘s analysis of the spirit of the meeting will affect the domestic planting field in two aspects: First, encouraging double-season rice planting will help the rice planting area to rise, benefit upstream seed demand, and work to solve the high stock problem in the rice seed industry. The industry will welcomePolicy dividends; secondly, if the minimum purchase price of rice is to be increased in 2020, the profit per acre of rice will increase, which will help increase farmers’ enthusiasm for planting and directly benefit the leader of hybrid rice seeds.
Media: The epidemic catalyzed the breakthrough of the “housing economy” in most industries, while catalyzing the rapid development of the “housing economy”.
According to the tracking of the Guotai Junan media team, how the home scene has increased demand for 无锡桑拿网 public online entertainment consumption, the data of the long video classification platform during the Spring Festival has been outstanding, and gradually promoted to rely on the content reserve and better viewing experience to achieve user retention.
▼ In the Spring Festival of 2020, TV ratings will increase significantly Data source: CSM, Guotai Junan Securities Research Consumption: Technology changes consumption in the short term, the epidemic catalyzes the “housing economy”, in the long run, technological progress brings changes in demand, and gradually drives consumption fromNot stopped.
This week, Guotai Junan’s nine major consumer teams joined forces to build on the three elements of communication intelligence, data intelligence and hardware intelligence, and paid close attention to investment opportunities in the consumer industry brought by technological advancement.
Through in-depth research, the consumer team believes that the impact of science and technology being transformed into the restructuring and evolution of the consumer goods industry is mainly reflected in two aspects: segmentation, technology transformation into the production side, product side, supply chain side, scenario side, and marketing side. The five major changes profoundly affect the entire consumer product.The industry promotes the continuous innovation of information products and services, leading to the birth of many new varieties of science and technology; integration, the transformation of new consumer needs into scientific and technological progress is continuously being met, and the already mature categories are rejuvenated under the blessing of science and technology, creating new growthAmount of space.
▼ The era of commercialization of AI has reached the source of data: Wuzhen Think Tank’s “Global Artificial Intelligence Development Report”, Guotai Junan Securities Research Stock Research This week, Guotai Junan’s research team covered a total of 25 stocks, of which Lianrui New Materials (688300.
SH), Hang Ke Technology (688006.
SH) and Dafeng Industrial (603081).
(SH) 3 companies carried out the first coverage; HKUST Xunfei (002230) was raised.
SZ) and UFIDA Network (600588.
SH) and other five companies’ target prices; Shanghai Jahwa (600315) is lowered.
SH) and daily interaction (300766.
SZ) Target prices for some companies.
First coverage of Lianrui New Materials (688300.
SH) and Dafeng Industrial (603081).
SH) is an absolute leader in the domestic silicon powder and sports equipment industry. Silicon powder is an important upstream raw material for domestic copper clad laminates and integrated circuits. Lianrui New Materials (688300).
(SH) It is expected that the rapid growth of the domestic communications semiconductor industry will usher in the expected development period.
Dafeng Industrial (603081.
(SH) It has obvious competitive advantages in qualification brands, R & D design, industrial integration, project contracting, etc. At the same time, the company continues to extend to the performing arts industry chain. The contribution of digital art technology and performance brokerage business to the company’s performance growth is expected to exceed expectations.
Guotai Junan Nonferrous and the media team have covered the above companies for the first time, and they have given an “overweight” rating.
For the first time, Hang Ke Technology (688006) was given the grade of “overweight”.
(SH). The company’s revenue mainly comes from charging and discharging equipment. In recent years, it has maintained a gross profit level of more than 50%. At present, the company is extending the advantages of the consumer lithium battery industry to the power lithium battery industry.
Guotai Junan’s high-end equipment team believes that the current boom in the consumer lithium battery industry is still in progress and the company strives to maintain high growth.
Raise the target price The increase in the target price is based on the optimism of the performance prospects of listed companies. UFIDA (600588).
(SH) The growth rate of cloud services in 2019 is as high as 150%, exceeding market expectations. Guotai Junan Computer raised the company’s target price.
Usually because of the optimistic view of the company’s industry boom, HKUST News Fei (002230.
SZ) and New Zebang (300037.
SZ) performance indicators for 2019, but considering the former’s competitive advantage and scarcity in the AI field, the pace of overlapping production expansion is expected to catch up with the rising age of laborers. The Guotai Junan computer team and the basic chemical team refer to the current estimation center of the industry and still give the company goalsPrice increases.
The last is due to confidence in company management.
On February 15, Weifu Hi-Tech (000581).(SZ) announced that it plans to repurchase part of the company’s A shares through a centralized bidding transaction, with a repurchase amount of 300 million to 600 million; on February 17, the gold kitchen cabinet (603180.
(SH) It is proposed to introduce equity incentives for middle and senior management and core backbones. This plan is to grant additional shares of 129.
170,000 shares, accounting for approximately 1% of the company’s total share capital.
The Guotai Junan Automobile team and the light industry manufacturing team believe that fair incentives are expected to accelerate the opening of the company’s growth space. With reference to the assessment of comparable companies, the target prices of some companies have been raised.
On February 17, Linglong Tire (601966.
(SH) Announcement intends to issue no more than 1 billion shares and raise no more than $ 2 billion for Jingmen’s annual production of 8 million sets of semi-steel and 1.2 million sets of all-steel high-efficiency tire production projects and “supplementary working capital”.
The Guotai Junan Basic Chemicals team analyzes that the company ‘s capacity growth is leading the industry. Projects under construction will continue to expand the company ‘s scale advantage and also raise its target price.
Revised target price in the fourth quarter of 2019, Shanghai Jahwa (600315.
(SH) Increasing the e-commerce expense in stages, resulting in pressure on the company’s short-term profit; In 2019, daily interaction (300766).
SZ) Impairment of large receivables, while the growth of advertising business declined.
Guotai Junan’s retail and media teams have lowered their target prices for a number of companies based on short-term performance adjustments.
Maintain ratings, SMIC (0981.
HK) and China Shenhua (601088.
(SH) and other companies due to performance in line with expectations, the industry’s supply and demand pattern is stable, all research teams of Guotai Junan have maintained their previous target prices and ratings.